Imbalance

The EUR/USD is @1.50, and oil pushing $80 while the S&P' fight to hold 1100. How much upside does this rally have without these a dramatic move in currencies and or interest rates?  Do we expect to see oil back at $100 while a global recovery is still in its infancy? Is gold singing a song we should be listening to?  Its time to stop and look around.

I figure that China and Japan can't afford to export  goods like SUVs and TVs to America with expensive commodity inputs from Australia and Canada in exchange for a desperately weak dollar.  The Chinese currency peg has a breaking point and the strong Yen does as well.  I'll bet a slide in the dollar over 1.70 will prompt emergency fed tightening of interest rates and that's enough to put the ice on  any stock rally. . Inflation tug-o-war is fought with ratcheting up interest rates and the stock market be damned. At this rate the EUR/USD must breach 2.10 for the S&P to reach its old highs. Maybe this is what we have in store and maybe its not. It is time to stand back and consider the risks here as speculators. Where are we going here?